THE latest national independent election poll predicts the Greens will take Sir Bill Wiggin’s North Herefordshire seat in a fortnight’s time.

Ipsos also predicts the county’s other constituency, Hereford and South Herefordshire, which includes Ross-on-Wye, will be a “toss-up” between Labour and the Conservatives, giving the incumbent Jesse Norman a one per cent lead over Labour’s Joe Emmett.

The poll published on June 18 by Ipsos, one of several to use a technique called MRP to drill down into likely local outcomes, predicts the Green’s Ellie Chowns will take 36 per cent of the North Herefordshire vote, seeing off Conservative incumbent Sir Bill – who lives in the constituency in Upton Bishop near Ross – on 30 per cent.

Sir Bill Wiggin

This is at sharp variance with a Survation pol earlier this month, also employing MRP, which forecast a narrow Tory hold over Labour, with the Greens trailing in fourth.

Ipsos predicts the Greens will also take Bristol Central and Waveney Valley on the Norfolk/Suffolk border, where the party’s co-leaders Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay respectively are standing, but losing to Labour in Brighton Pavilion, the party’s fourth target seat nationally.

“This poll confirms what we’ve been hearing from local people all over North Herefordshire: it will be Green or Conservative here on July 4,” Dr Chowns said.

Sir Bill has held North Herefordshire with a margin of over 50 per cent in each of the last six elections since he first took the seat in 2005.

Survation’s previous poll in Hereford and South Herefordshire said Labour would take the seat by a 2.5 per cent margin.