The population of Herefordshire will increase by 8,600 by 2026, according to the Office for National Statistics.

In 2016 the population was 189,500. By 2026 it is expected to reach 198,100, a rise of 4.5%.

Every two years the ONS estimates how the population of England will change over the next 25 years. Statisticians study birth and death rates, and look at how the area’s population is ageing.

In Herefordshire the percentage of the population made up by pensioners is expected to rise from 23.6% in 2016 to 27.1% 10 years later. And by 2036 the ONS thinks over 65s will make up almost a third of the area’s residents.

People are living longer due to improvements in healthcare and technology, however this puts greater pressure on the NHS and social care.

Caroline Abrahams, Age UK charity director, said: “The fact there are growing numbers of older people is a cause for real celebration, but these figures underline, once again, the need to ensure that our health and social care system is fit for the future.

“The Government’s decision to produce a social care green paper was welcome but realistically it will be years before its proposals impact in local areas, so action is needed now to shore up what remains of our care system.”

When calculating the population estimates for Herefordshire the ONS expects the death rate to outstrip the birth rate. Figures also show the male population is expected to grow slightly faster than the female population.

The statisticians then factor in people moving around England and immigrating from across the world, which is called internal and international migration.

The ONS estimates there will be an overall net increase of 12,000 migrants by 2026. The most significant increase was in migrants from abroad, with a net rise of 7,800 estimated.

Population growth in Herefordshire was below the average for the West Midlands, where the population is expected to increase by 5.4% by 2026.

The average growth rate across England was 5.9%.

Only 15 local authorities have populations which are expected to fall. The City of London has the biggest drop of 12.5% followed by Barrow in Cumbria.

And the ONS predicts that by the year 2041 the population of Herefordshire will have grown to 205,800.